1. The Basho Winner
Hakuho. The only real question is whether he’ll win a zen yusho (go undefeated). Unless he gets injured it’s hard to see anyone even pressing him for the title. In the year end report I showed how although Hakuho is still the best his power rating has gone down since 2009. There are two reasons for this. The first is that makuuchi division has been weakened by numerous forced retirements and expulsions over the last two years. A weaker talent level means the power ratings as a whole decrease. The second reason for Hakuho’s power ranking decrease is that he lost more bouts in 2011 than he did in 2009 and 2010 combined. In 2009 Hakuho set a record for most victories in a calendar year and then in 2010 he tied his own record. It’s simply not possible for anyone to produce at record setting levels year after year. Hakuho may not be quite as good as he was two years ago, but there has been no noticeable depreciation in his skills. No one else is close to him. Hakuho said he’d like to win yusho number 24 this year, which would mean winning 4 yusho. That seems to be quite a modest goal, and we’ll see how it plays out.
Although Kotoshogiku is the second highest rikishi in terms of power ranking, Baruto would still have to be accorded the closest rikishi to Hakuho in terms of being able to dominate opponents, when he is on his game. Baruto has said his goal for this year is to win a yusho. We’ll see if he has the mental strength and determination to do that. It’s a realistic goal, but it was in 2011 too and he never came close. In any case, it’s unlikely to happen at Hatsu.
2. The New Ozeki
I like the chances of both Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku to finish with double digit wins, although I don’t see either of them challenging for the yusho. The pair went at it hard during a keiko session, a good sign of the fighting spirit of both ozeki. (Kisenosato had an edge in victories, but as he himself noted, he hasn’t done particularly well against Kotoshogiku in real matches recently.)
3. The Sekiwake
In 2011 the sekiwake were uniformly good (and also had no make koshi). The former trend, at least continues in Hatsu. I expect both Kakuryu and Toyonoshima to go kachi koshi, although Kakuryu is the greater talent and the one I expect will finish with more wins. At Hatsu 2011 many people would have expected Kakuryu to be the next ozeki. Obviously it didn’t turn out that way. On the other hand, in Hatsu 2009 many people would have expected Kisenosato to be the next ozeki . Sometimes things just take longer than expected. May it be so for Kakuryu.
4. The Top Jo’i
It’s a weak jo’i this tournament, with Okinoumi and Goeido, at M2, providing the only real bright spots. Both are capable of going kachi-koshi, although the likelihood is that only one will. Recent history favors Okinoumi, while the power rankings show Goeido still higher. Maybe 2012 is the year Goeido starts to put it together, because when he’s good, he’s very good, shown by victories over all five current ozeki last year. I’d give him the slight edge to go kk.
5. The Top Rookies of 2011
That would be, for my money at least, Tochinowaka and Myogiryu, who are ranked next to each other at M4W and M5E, respectively. I expect each of them to have a very good tournament and I’m very impressed with both of them overall. Although some people are touting Tochinowaka as the new big thing, I think the jury is still very much out on which rikishi will have a better career. Tochinowaka has a larger and more impressive body (and is two years younger), but I really like the technique and spirit I see from Myogiryu and right now slightly favor his chances. It will be interesting to see how they each climb the ranks over the next two or three years.
6. The Under-Ranked Rikishi
The rikisihi I identified in my last column as the disappointments for 2011, Tochiozan and Tochinoshin (and also Aran) are all under-ranked and have all done well at the mid-maegashira level in the past. I expect good bouts from all three. Of the three, I feel that Tochiozan is the best.
7. The rookies
There are four rookies in Hatsu: Chiyonokuni, Tenkaiho, Kyokushuho and Nionoumi. I believe that Kyokushuho is likely to do best at Hatsu. He has been pegged as one to watch for a number of years now, and while his climb to the makuuchi division has been slower than expected he is still young and talented. I also like Chiyonokuni and Tenkaiho and expect them both to have good careers, with Chiyonokuni likely to have the better career over time, but perhaps Tenkaiho rising faster during 2012. I see Niomoumi, who is undersized, as returning to juryo.
8. Pairs Likely to Disappoint
I’m not sure if Kotooshu really disappoints anyone anymore. Other rikishi appear dispassionate, while Kotooshu actually looks bored. His fighting strength for 2011 is not worthy of an ozeki. The best thing for sumo would be for Kotooshu to be demoted and Kakuryu to take his place as an ozeki. It could well happen in 2012. Kotooshu hurt his arm during keiko but it doesn’t appear to be serious. If he’s not significantly hurt he should be able to pull out an uninspiring kachi koshi.
Harumafuji has certainly been hurt recently. Kintamayama at Sumo Forum reported recently that in early December Harumafuji had a large tumor in his buttocks surgically removed. It was discovered late and may well account for his lethargic performance at Kyushu. Harumafuji lost some weight and was behind (no pun intended) in his keiko. It’s hard for me to see how he should even be in Hatsu, and if he can win 8 or 9 bouts (and that’s a big “if”) it will be a major accomplishment in itself.
As much as the sekiwake are good, the komusubi are bad. It’s a sad thing to see the 34 year old Miyabiyama back in the sanyaku for the first time in four years. His power ranking number is terrible, and his technique rating at Kyushu was awful too: he had a rating of 19 (for 11 wins, which he had, his rating should have at least been in the high 20s), showing that he no longer is capable of consistently winning with forward moving sumo, even against rank-and-filers. Miyabiyama is too slow and his technique too shallow to win at this level. Every single member of the sanyaku is considerably better than Miyabiyama at this stage in his career, and if he beats any of them he should count himself lucky.
Wakakoyu is younger and better, but not by much. He’s going to lose a large majority of his matches as well.
The rest of the jo’i pairs up as well, the two M1s (Takekaze and Aminishiki) and the two M3s (Kitataiki and Takayasu). It’s Takayasu’s first time facing the top level of competition, and that seldom goes well. The other three aren’t talented enough to win at this level. Make koshi’s all around.
Finally, I’m also pairing up Sagatsukasa and Asasekiryu. If so many rikishi hadn’t been banned in March 2011 they would both be in juryo today. As it is they are likely to only have to wait another 15 days for that destination to become a reality.
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