Post Kyushu 2011 Initial Comments

Kyushu 2011 now in the books, let’s take a look at the matters I pegged for attention before the basho.

1. Who is going to win the Yusho?

Pre-basho prediction:  “The likelihood of Hakuho’s winning the yusho in Kyushu is considerably higher than ninety percent. Essentially, if Hakuho doesn’t get injured during the tournament he’s going to win it. Someday some rikishi will pose a real challenge to Hakuho and someday Hakuho won’t be able to win a tournament at will. However, that day will not come in November 2011. The yusho winner will be Hakuho.”

Post-basho analysis: Bingo. Hakuho’s dominance is the clearest thing about sumo at present. A monkey could have correctly predicted he’s win the basho, but in this case I did.

 

2. Will Kisenosato win 11 (or more) and thus obtain promotion to ozeki?

Pre-basho prediction: “My guess is that the positives will outweigh the negatives and sumo will get the second (and younger and more talented) ozeki many in Japan clearly want. I’d take the over on Kisenosato’s winning at least 11 victories and getting promoted to ozeki for the new year. I wouldn’t bet the house on it though.”

Kisenosato looked very good in week one. After that, he just looked weak. Actually, to be fair, he looked bad in his wins – he pulled out a lucky win against Kotooshu after being dominated, and almost lost to both Tochinoshin and Gagamaru, inferior rikishi having bad tournaments – and he looked okay in his losses. The problem was there were just too many losses. Kisenosato only won 10 times, for a total of 32 wins over the last three tournaments. I had noted that “before Aki, he never (as in not once in 41 previous tournaments) won more than 11 victories when ranked at the top (in the sanyuku or jo’i). To ask him to do it twice in a row would seem to be a lot.” And it was.

The appropriate thing to do would have been to let Kisenosato reset in January, where he again would be carrying a win total of 22 going into the tournament. Kotoshogiku had to go through it a second time, so why not Kisenosato, especially when there already is a Japanese ozeki?

Well, because the Sumo Association decided otherwise, that’s why.

“Under the JSA's loosely defined guidelines, a total of 33 wins over three consecutive tournaments is the minimum requirement for a move up to ozeki. Kisenosato, who won his first Technique Prize, had only reached 32 ahead of his bout against Kotoshogiku.

The JSA officiating committee, nevertheless, decided to make an exception based on Kisenosato's consistently strong performances and his future potential. Kisenosato will become the second wrestler in as many tournaments to gain promotion to ozeki following Kotoshogiku who got the nod after the autumn meet in September.” http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/sports/news/20111127p2g00m0sp058000c.html

          Wow, you can get promoted to ozeki based on your “future potential?” Who knew? If that was the criteria they should have promoted Kisenosato back in 2008. Hmmm. If memory serves me correctly, there was once a yokozuna candidate who didn’t meet the critera for promotion but was promoted nevertheless based on his “future potential.” His name was Futahaguro. As I recall that one didn’t work out too well.

          I don’t blame Kisenosato; although he slightly underperformed in Kyushu he didn’t make this mess. Once again, the Sumo Association shows itself to be among the worst sports’ organizations in the world. Alright, more on this mess in another post.

 

3. How will the rikishi newly promoted to the makuuchi division fare in their first tournament?

Pre-basho prediction:

A. Myogiryu: “I’m not saying Myogiryu is going to be another yokozuna. However, I predict that no later than 2013 he is going to be a mainstay in the sanyaku…. I’m looking forward to watching a very interesting and successful career.”

B. “I don’t see any of the other four newcomers having the same level of success, although I think Aoiyama certainly has the size to stay in the top division.”

C. “I also like Shohozan and think that, like Aoiyama he has the stuff to stick in the mankuuchi division.”

D. The other two newcomers (Tsurugidake, who is clearly only here because of the March banishments, and Sadanofuji) are at most borderline rikishi. I’m guessing their New Year’s destination is south, in 10 ryu-land.

 

Post-basho analysis:

Aki 2011 Rookie Comparison

Shikona                     W/L                Power            Percent         Forward Sumo

Myogiryu                  10-5               36-16             69%                33

Shohozan                 10-5               35-12             74%                32

Aoiyama                   11-4               32-12             72%                31

Sadanofuji                  8-7               22-17             56%                18

Tsurugidake               4-11             12-32             27%                16

Except for Tsurugidake, a remarkably successful rookie debut by this crop, with the three I tapped for success all posting double digit victories. Myogiryu achieved the highest power ranking, at 36, and displayed the most forward moving sumo, at 33. He also looked the best. I stand by my pre-basho remarks that he’ll have the best career and be a sanyuka mainstain no later than 2013. Time will tell, of course, but thusfar he delivered on his promise.

Aoiyama had one more win, and defeated Myogiryu in his head to head bout. Although his power ranking and forward moving sumo ranking are lower than Myogiryu’s, they are very close. He deservedly won the Fighting Spirit Prize.  

Shohozan’s performance was right up there with those of Myogiryu and Aoiyama in all the key categories. Nicely done.

Sadanofuji surprised me, and with a kachi koshi will not be returning to juryo in January. If you track his performance, however, you’ll see it is significantly lower than the other winning rookies. (A good forward moving sumo rating for a rikishi with 8 wins would be in the mid-20s; Sadanofuji’s 18 is an indication that his sumo wasn’t very good). This is the performance I got wrong, but as the chart shows, his hold on success is nebulous.

Tsurigidake. His one tournament in the makuuchi division can be directly traces to the expulsions from the earlier yaocho scandal. Enough said.

Overall, my prediction was correct for 4 out of 5 in Kyushu, and I still believe I correctly pegged Sadanofuji’s future career.

 4. Does Kotooshu still have enough left to remain an ozeki?

Pre-basho prediction:  “I’m doubtful that Kotooshu can go kachi-koshi. Maybe he can pull it out and scrape by with 8 or even 9 victories. But the end is coming soon.”

Post-basho analysis: Well, I was wrong, sort of. Kotooshu did pull it out and scrape by with 9 victories. He even looked pretty good during the first week. The first rule in sports is you have to defeat the people who aren’t as good as you, and he did that.

However, he did just scrape by. His power raking coming into the tournament was 70.8, and his power ranking in Kyushu was 70. That simply isn’t a high enough level of performance to maintain the rank of ozeki over the long term. I still believe “the end is coming soon” will prove to be correct.

5. What can we expect from Kotoshogiku?     

Pre-basho prediction: “I’m anticipating Kotoshogiku will fall into the 8 or 9 wins group, with perhaps 9 being more likely since Kyushu is friendly turf for him.”

Post-basho analysis: Kotoshogiku outperformed my prediction, starting out with 9 straight victories, and gathering 11 overall. He looked better than anyone not named Hakuho or Baruto and showed that despite a rather week run at ozeki he isn’t going to disgrace that name. (If that’s even possible after the last four or five years.) Plus, with Kisenosato elevated after an even weaker ozeki run, the debate over Kotoshogiku’s somewhat shaky credentials will quickly fade. A lovely debut ozeki showing – kudos for exceeding my prediction.

6.     Are there any other rikishi worth special attention?

Pre-basho prediction:

A.    “Perhaps not.”

B.    “For the elevator rikishi: elevator up for Kaisei and Wakakoyu; elevator down for Gagamaru and Aran.”

C.    “I’m hoping that the lumbering henka-clunker Kimurayama produces his fifth make kochi in a row (all would be from ranks14 M or lower, which surely would be a record) and we never have to see him in the makuuchi division again.”

D.   “I believe the end is near for Asasekiryu – he just doesn’t have it any more.”

E.     “Following him sometime next year should be Miyabiyama.”

F.     “On a somewhat sadder note, I think this is likely to be the final tournament for Takamisakari….”

Post-basho analysis:

A. I knew Tochinowaka was going to be good, but I didn’t expect him to be this good this soon. For his first time in the j’oi he did very well. Don’t let the fact that he made a make koshi fool you – his power ranking for Kyushu was 64, tenth best overall. The only reason he didn’t get kachi koshi was because both Kyokutenho and Aminishiki henka’d him and he lost those two matches. He’s talented enough that henka’s won’t fool him for long. He has a great body for sumo and displays a lot of heart. He’s already worthy of special attention, and I was wrong for not predicting it this basho.

B. “For the elevator rikishi: elevator up for Kaisei and Wakakoyu; elevator down for Gagamaru and Aran.”

                             Kyushu               Aki

Kaisei                    6-9                       4-11

Wakakoyu          12-3                      6-9

Gagamaru            2-13                  11-4

Aran                      4-11                    5-10

Technically I was correct on all four, but in reality Kaisei still looked awful, so I’ll take a three out of four on this one.

C. “I’m hoping that the lumbering henka-clunker Kimurayama produces his fifth make kochi in a row (all would be from ranks14 M or lower, which surely would be a record) and we never have to see him in the makuuchi division again.”

Let’s see just how poorly Kimurayama performed:

Shikona                     W/L                Power            Percent         Forward Sumo

Kimurayama                        4- 11              11-28             28%                -1

Yes, you are reading it correctly, Kimurayama produced a negative number for forward sumo, a new record. Five henkas and eight bouts with no forward motion (zeros) can do that. Kimurayama gets a special jeer for henka’ing 1-13 (and obviously hurt) Kokkai on day 15. Nothing becomes him as well as his leaving for juryo. Take your “junk” with you and don’t come back. Bulls-eye prediction.

D. “I believe the end is near for Asasekiryu – he just doesn’t have it any more.” 6-9 in Kyushu, his six make koshi in a row, and he yet again he looked bad. He’s likely to be at the very bottom of the makuuchi division in January, and the end is even nearer.

E. and F. Miyabiyama and Takamisakari (in juryo) both produced kachi kosh, much to my surprise. Their sumo wasn’t any good though. And I still think 2012 will be the last year for both of them.

2011 Kyushu Basho: Pre-Basho Discussion

A number of questions are hanging over the Kyushu Basho, and I’ll try to address them in order of importance.

1. Who is going to win the Yusho?

   Everyone who follows sumo understands that Hakuho is the odds on favourite to win the yusho [championship], so the only real question is how likely is he to win. Since Asashoryu was forced out of sumo following his yusho in January 2010, Hakuho has won seven out of the eight basho, a win rate of 87.5%.

   If I had to take the under/over on that percentage I’d take the over without a second thought. The likelihood of Hakuho’s winning the yusho in Kyushu is considerably higher than ninety percent. Essentially, if Hakuho doesn’t get injured during the tournament he’s going to win it. Someday some rikishi will pose a real challenge to Hakuho and someday Hakuho won’t be able to win a tournament at will. However, that day will not come in November 2011. The yusho winner will be Hakuho.

2. Will Kisenosato win 11 (or more) and thus obtain promotion to ozeki?

         At 25 Kisenosato isn’t much of a kid anymore (so much for that nickname, it happens to the best of us, as Ted Williams could have reported), and yet it’s at this point in his career, with a full seven years in the makuuchi division now under his belt, that he challenges for promotion to ozeki for the first time. In his favor are the accumulated experience (evident in the more mature and careful approach he exhibited in Aki basho last time) and the fact that he clearly is the present hope of Japanese sumo (no offense to Kotoshokigu, on whom more later).   Going against him is the fact that before Aki, he never (as in not once in 41 previous tournaments) won more than 11 victories when ranked at the top (in the sanyuku or jo’i). To ask him to do it twice in a row would seem to be a lot. The wild card is how Kisenosato will react to the investigation of his oyakata (coach) Naruto for abusing wrestlers in his beya (sumo stable) by, inter alia, injecting them with insulin and hitting the over the head with a blunt object, as well as reports that Kisnosato aided him in some of this behavior, and then Naruto’s untimely (or very timely, as will be discussed in a later post) demise. It’s really impossible to know what psychological affect this coverage has had on Kisenosato.

My guess is that the positives will outweigh the negatives and sumo will get the second (and younger and more talented) ozeki many in Japan clearly want. I’d take the over on Kisenosato’s winning at least 11 victories and getting promoted to ozeki for the new year. I wouldn’t bet the house on it though.

3. How will the rikishi newly promoted to the makuuchi division fair in their first tournament?

          There are five rikishi who are wrestling for the first time in the makuuchi division in Kyushu: Myogiryu, Shohozan (formerly Matsutani), Sadanofuji, Aoiyama and Tsurugidake. I watched them all wrestle in the juryu division in Aki (due to the increased live coverage provided by JSA on the internet). I was very impressed with Myogiryu, not so much because he won his second consecutive juryo yusho (although that is impressive in itself), not so much because he clearly is powerful and has good technique, but mostly because of his attitude. In Aki Myogiryu was cocky. He looked dominant before the match, during it and afterwards. He was a bad-ass, tossing other rikishi off the dohyo, often into the second row. I haven’t seen the sort of attitude he displayed since Asashoryu wrestled. I’m not saying Myogiryu is going to be another yokozuna. However, I predict that no later than 2013 he is going to be a mainstay in the sanyaku. He’s got some fire in his belly (as well as a fair amount of chankonabe) and I’m looking forward to watching a very interesting and successful career.

          I don’t see any of the other four newcomers having the same level of success, although I think Aoiyama certainly has the size to stay in the top division. He may not be as strong as Gagamaru, but he has a better balance on his feet (of course so do most people who gets below a .10 on a breathalyzer). We’ll be seeing some big, gangly sumo from Aoiyama and for the immediate future.

I also like Shohozan and think that, like Aoiyama he has the stuff to stick in the mankuuchi division. The other two newcomers (Tsurugidake, who is clearly only here because of the March banishments, and Sadanofuji) are at most borderline rikishi. I’m guessing their New Year’s destination is south, in 10 ryu-land. 

4. Does Kotooshu still have enough left to remain an ozeki?

          Kotooshu’s power ranking has fallen faster than Rick Perry’s ability to recall three items during a debate. In fact, to carry this comparison a bit further, Kotooshu is actually only showing about two-thirds of the achievement he produced at the height of his powers. To be more precise, in July 2009 Kotooshu’s power ranking was 106.25, while at present (November 2011) his power ranking stands at 70.8, so that his current strength is only 66.64% of what it was two and a half years ago. (You couldn’t make this stuff up – I’m sure Rick Perry feel’s Kotooshu’s pain.)

          The mere fact that I’m raking Kotooshu’s possible demise as number four on the items of interest shows how precipitous his decline has been. Kotooshu’s always been a bit of an enigma – how can anyone with a body so well equipped for the rigors of sumo, with such a superior reach, manage such comparatively mediocre performance? He’s always had a penchant for losing to inferior rikishi. Not only does he lose to them, but he looks really bad when he loses to them, knocked back on his butt or thrown around as if he were, well, me. Even more baffling (and annoying) is how he almost never seems particularly perturbed by any of his bad losses, as if it were just another day at the office. Which I guess it is, for him.

          Kotooshu fact of the day: in his thirty four tournaments at ozeki he was won more than 10 victories twice, while he has won fewer than 5 victories four times. He withdrew from Aki with a seemingly phantom injury. To loosely paraphrase his own oyakata “I don’t know what Kotooshu is doing out on the dohyo but it sure isn’t sumo.”

          I’ve only seen Kotooshu register emotion (well, other than boredom) on his face during two basho. Once was before he was preparing to wrestle Hakuho where his face registered a look somewhere between resignation and fear, as if to say “I know whatever I do I’m going to be thrown on my ass,” which, in fact, he was. The second time was at Aki, where he looked genuinely concerned and puzzled about how to arrest the tide of losses.

          I’m doubtful that Kotooshu can go kachi-koshi. Maybe he can pull it out and scrape by with 8 or even 9 victories. But the end is coming soon. On the plus side, I’ve heard Bulgaria is lovely this time of year. While I wouldn’t volunteer a bet against him, if I had to bet I’d take the under on Kotooshu.

5. What can we expect from Kotoshogiku?

          It’s true that Kotoshogiku didn’t have the most overpowering ozeki run, and that in some respects he’s a stop-gap ozeki, the Japanese ozeki until another more talented Japanese contender emerges. (This could happen as soon as this tournament, depending on how Kisenosato fares.) It’s also true that his technique although powerful is rather limited (a full 68 percent of his victories coming from yorikiri, fuelled by his famous hug and chug). But what he does he does well, and he has a lot of heart.

          Just what does it all mean though? Well, it’s pretty easy to break down. Historically, there are two kinds of ozeki: the ones who are just passing through on their way to yokozuna and the ones for whom ozeki is the summit of their career. It’s no disrespect to Kotoshogiku to note that clearly he is the latter type of ozeki. (Nota bene: he’s 27 and in the makuuchi division he’s never won a yusho, never won more than 12 victories and only won more than 11 victories once, last tournament.)

          Looking at the last 32 ozeki* who failed to make yokozuna, in the first six bouts of their careers after being promoted to ozeki they produced the following collective results out of their 192 bouts: 

34 bouts: 17.7% -- failed to kachi koshi

81 bouts: 42.2% -- won 8 or 9 victories

36 bouts: 18.8% -- won 10 victories

41 bouts: 21.3% -- won more than 10 victories

Out of those 32 ozeki wrestling in their first year after promotion they only won the yusho five times (2.6%). (Two of those five wins were by Kaio, whose decline, aided but unmasked by other rikishi who obligingly participated in yaocho, sometimes obscures just how good he was in the early and middle parts of his career.)

          I think those statistics should hold for the next year of Kotoshogiku’s career as well, and I’d predict over the next six basho he produces one make koshi, three 8 or 9 bashos, one 10 win basho and one more than 10 win basho. Likewise I think his chance of winning a yusho in the next year is in the vicinity of 2%. The first basho after promotion is seldom glorious for this group, probably a combination of the tremendous mental (and physical) strain involved in an ozeki run combined with perhaps a lot of celebrating after the goal is obtained. I’m anticipating Kotoshogiku will fall into the 8 or 9 wins group, with perhaps 9 being more likely since Kyushu is friendly turf for him.

          *One rikishi on this list, Kaiketsu, was promoted to ozeki two separate times in his career without using the three preceding basho formula (i.e., not availing himself of the more relaxed rule permitting automatic regaining of the ozeki rank with 10 or more victories the first basho following relegation to sekiwake). Let’s consider Kaiketsu to be the Grover Cleveland of sumo.

6. Are there any other rikishi worth special attention?

          Perhaps not. For the elevator rikishi: elevator up for Kaisei and Wakakoyu; elevator down for Gagamaru and Aran. I’m hoping that the lumbering henka-clunker Kimurayama produces his fifth make kochi in a row (all would be from ranks14 M or lower, which surely would be a record) and we never have to see him in the makuuchi division again. I believe the end is near for Asasekiryu – he just doesn’t have it any more. Following him sometime next year should be Miyabiyama.  On a somewhat sadder note, I think this is likely to be the final tournament for Takamisakari, who’s plummet continues down in juryo. He’s been a lot more than just the clown he’s sometimes viewed as, but he’s bereft of his previous power now and he should lose to both the better rikishi and the younger rikishi, which doesn’t leave a lot of victories for him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him retire mid-tournament, actually, and think it quite unlikely he can retain his juryo rank.