- Who is going to win the Yusho?
Post-basho analysis: Bingo. Hakuho’s dominance is the clearest thing about sumo at present. A monkey could have correctly predicted he’s win the basho, but in this case I did.
- Will Kisenosato win 11 (or more) and thus obtain promotion to ozeki?
Kisenosato looked very good in week one. After that, he just looked weak. Actually, to be fair, he looked bad in his wins – he pulled out a lucky win against Kotooshu after being dominated, and almost lost to both Tochinoshin and Gagamaru, inferior rikishi having bad tournaments – and he looked okay in his losses. The problem was there were just too many losses. Kisenosato only won 10 times, for a total of 32 wins over the last three tournaments. I had noted that “before Aki, he never (as in not once in 41 previous tournaments) won more than 11 victories when ranked at the top (in the sanyuku or jo’i). To ask him to do it twice in a row would seem to be a lot.” And it was.
The appropriate thing to do would have been to let Kisenosato reset in January, where he again would be carrying a win total of 22 going into the tournament. Kotoshogiku had to go through it a second time, so why not Kisenosato, especially when there already is a Japanese ozeki?
Well, because the Sumo Association decided otherwise, that’s why.
“Under the JSA's loosely defined guidelines, a total of 33 wins over three consecutive tournaments is the minimum requirement for a move up to ozeki. Kisenosato, who won his first Technique Prize, had only reached 32 ahead of his bout against Kotoshogiku.
The JSA officiating committee, nevertheless, decided to make an exception based on Kisenosato's consistently strong performances and his future potential. Kisenosato will become the second wrestler in as many tournaments to gain promotion to ozeki following Kotoshogiku who got the nod after the autumn meet in September.” http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/sports/news/20111127p2g00m0sp058000c.html
Wow, you can get promoted to ozeki based on your “future potential?” Who knew? If that was the criteria they should have promoted Kisenosato back in 2008. Hmmm. If memory serves me correctly, there was once a yokozuna candidate who didn’t meet the critera for promotion but was promoted nevertheless based on his “future potential.” His name was Futahaguro. As I recall that one didn’t work out too well.
I don’t blame Kisenosato; although he slightly underperformed in Kyushu he didn’t make this mess. Once again, the Sumo Association shows itself to be among the worst sports’ organizations in the world. Alright, more on this mess in another post.
- How will the rikishi newly promoted to the makuuchi division fare in their first tournament?
Pre-basho prediction:
A. Myogiryu: “I’m not saying Myogiryu is going to be another yokozuna. However, I predict that no later than 2013 he is going to be a mainstay in the sanyaku…. I’m looking forward to watching a very interesting and successful career.”
C. “I also like Shohozan and think that, like Aoiyama he has the stuff to stick in the mankuuchi division.”
D. The other two newcomers (Tsurugidake, who is clearly only here because of the March banishments, and Sadanofuji) are at most borderline rikishi. I’m guessing their New Year’s destination is south, in 10 ryu-land.
Post-basho analysis:
Aki 2011 Rookie Comparison
Shikona W/L Power Percent Forward Sumo
Myogiryu 10-5 36-16 69% 33
Shohozan 10-5 35-12 74% 32
Aoiyama 11-4 32-12 72% 31
Sadanofuji 8-7 22-17 56% 18
Tsurugidake 4-11 12-32 27% 16
Except for Tsurugidake, a remarkably successful rookie debut by this crop, with the three I tapped for success all posting double digit victories. Myogiryu achieved the highest power ranking, at 36, and displayed the most forward moving sumo, at 33. He also looked the best. I stand by my pre-basho remarks that he’ll have the best career and be a sanyuka mainstain no later than 2013. Time will tell, of course, but thusfar he delivered on his promise.
Aoiyama had one more win, and defeated Myogiryu in his head to head bout. Although his power ranking and forward moving sumo ranking are lower than Myogiryu’s, they are very close. He deservedly won the Fighting Spirit Prize.
Shohozan’s performance was right up there with those of Myogiryu and Aoiyama in all the key categories. Nicely done.
Sadanofuji surprised me, and with a kachi koshi will not be returning to juryo in January. If you track his performance, however, you’ll see it is significantly lower than the other winning rookies. (A good forward moving sumo rating for a rikishi with 8 wins would be in the mid-20s; Sadanofuji’s 18 is an indication that his sumo wasn’t very good). This is the performance I got wrong, but as the chart shows, his hold on success is nebulous.
Tsurigidake. His one tournament in the makuuchi division can be directly traces to the expulsions from the earlier yaocho scandal. Enough said.
Overall, my prediction was correct for 4 out of 5 in Kyushu, and I still believe I correctly pegged Sadanofuji’s future career.
Pre-basho prediction: “I’m doubtful that Kotooshu can go kachi-koshi. Maybe he can pull it out and scrape by with 8 or even 9 victories. But the end is coming soon.”
Post-basho analysis: Well, I was wrong, sort of. Kotooshu did pull it out and scrape by with 9 victories. He even looked pretty good during the first week. The first rule in sports is you have to defeat the people who aren’t as good as you, and he did that.
However, he did just scrape by. His power raking coming into the tournament was 70.8, and his power ranking in Kyushu was 70. That simply isn’t a high enough level of performance to maintain the rank of ozeki over the long term. I still believe “the end is coming soon” will prove to be correct.
- What can we expect from Kotoshogiku?
Post-basho analysis: Kotoshogiku outperformed my prediction, starting out with 9 straight victories, and gathering 11 overall. He looked better than anyone not named Hakuho or Baruto and showed that despite a rather week run at ozeki he isn’t going to disgrace that name. (If that’s even possible after the last four or five years.) Plus, with Kisenosato elevated after an even weaker ozeki run, the debate over Kotoshogiku’s somewhat shaky credentials will quickly fade. A lovely debut ozeki showing – kudos for exceeding my prediction.
6. Are there any other rikishi worth special attention?
Pre-basho prediction:
A. “Perhaps not.”
B. “For the elevator rikishi: elevator up for Kaisei and Wakakoyu; elevator down for Gagamaru and Aran.”
C. “I’m hoping that the lumbering henka-clunker Kimurayama produces his fifth make kochi in a row (all would be from ranks14 M or lower, which surely would be a record) and we never have to see him in the makuuchi division again.”
D. “I believe the end is near for Asasekiryu – he just doesn’t have it any more.”
E. “Following him sometime next year should be Miyabiyama.”
F. “On a somewhat sadder note, I think this is likely to be the final tournament for Takamisakari….”
Post-basho analysis:
A. I knew Tochinowaka was going to be good, but I didn’t expect him to be this good this soon. For his first time in the j’oi he did very well. Don’t let the fact that he made a make koshi fool you – his power ranking for Kyushu was 64, tenth best overall. The only reason he didn’t get kachi koshi was because both Kyokutenho and Aminishiki henka’d him and he lost those two matches. He’s talented enough that henka’s won’t fool him for long. He has a great body for sumo and displays a lot of heart. He’s already worthy of special attention, and I was wrong for not predicting it this basho.
B. “For the elevator rikishi: elevator up for Kaisei and Wakakoyu; elevator down for Gagamaru and Aran.”
Kyushu Aki
Kaisei 6-9 4-11
Wakakoyu 12-3 6-9
Gagamaru 2-13 11-4
Aran 4-11 5-10
Technically I was correct on all four, but in reality Kaisei still looked awful, so I’ll take a three out of four on this one.
C. “I’m hoping that the lumbering henka-clunker Kimurayama produces his fifth make kochi in a row (all would be from ranks14 M or lower, which surely would be a record) and we never have to see him in the makuuchi division again.”
Let’s see just how poorly Kimurayama performed:
Shikona W/L Power Percent Forward Sumo
Kimurayama 4- 11 11-28 28% -1
Yes, you are reading it correctly, Kimurayama produced a negative number for forward sumo, a new record. Five henkas and eight bouts with no forward motion (zeros) can do that. Kimurayama gets a special jeer for henka’ing 1-13 (and obviously hurt) Kokkai on day 15. Nothing becomes him as well as his leaving for juryo. Take your “junk” with you and don’t come back. Bulls-eye prediction.
D. “I believe the end is near for Asasekiryu – he just doesn’t have it any more.” 6-9 in Kyushu, his six make koshi in a row, and he yet again he looked bad. He’s likely to be at the very bottom of the makuuchi division in January, and the end is even nearer.
E. and F. Miyabiyama and Takamisakari (in juryo) both produced kachi kosh, much to my surprise. Their sumo wasn’t any good though. And I still think 2012 will be the last year for both of them.
I appreciate what you're doing here with statistics. It's much more clear-cut than the crux and pocket theory that they have over on sumo and stogies. Basically it looks like you're doing "moneyball" on sumo--instead of who gets on first, your main criteria is who wins while moving forward. It makes a lot of sense if you want to identify power sumo, but I wish there were more room in your analysis for appreciation of those rikishi who maybe lack the brawn to deploy power sumo but are able to win against larger men by using their brains.
ReplyDeleteThank you for viewing the blog and for your inciteful comment. With this blog I'm trying to create some additional statistics to help people analyze sumo, as currently the only real statistics that exist are won-loss records. Sumo Reference is great for those. http://sumodb.sumogames.com/
ReplyDeleteSumo Talk and Sumo and Stogies both contain considerable inciteful anaysis but it's not always backed up with statistics and many of the generalizations offered are either not clearly supported or overexaggerated. So by trying to create some alternate statistics, Power Rating (based on my modification of David Benjamin's ground breaking work) and Forward Moving Sumo, I hope to kick the ball forward, and at least create a more objective basis for further subjective thoughts.
I agree with you that power sumo isn't everything, although overall I think the best rikishi win by moving forward and it's also generally the most enjoyable sumo to watch. There is a place for the wily in sumo, however, and that is worthy of further exploration. Thank you again for sharing your thoughts.