The Aki 2011 basho had some good individual performances, so using a Power Ranking system here are the top performing rikishi followed by some comments on each.
Power Ranking Strength Percent of
2. Kotoshogiku. He turned in the second best performance power rating-wise in Aki. He took his second jun-yusho (together with Kisenosato) for finishing with the second best record at 12-3, and was awarded his third career shukun-sho (outstanding performance prize, also won by Kisenosato) for defeating Hakuho, and was awarded his fourth gino-sho (technique prize). Most importantly, his twelve victories meant that Kotoshogiku had won thirty three victories over the last three tournaments, enough for him to be promoted to ozeki, as he was officially shortly after the tournament ended.
The truth about Kotoshogiku, of course, is that he was the right rikishi (or slightly more accurately, the rikishi born in the right place) at the right time, that being a moment where there was no Japanese rikishi above sekiwake. The Japanese fans wanted a “home grown” rikishi, which is understandable.
It’s true that Kotoshogiku seems more like a stop-gap ozeki than a potential great one. It’s almost impossible envisioning him going on to become a yokozuna. In fact, it’s difficult to see him challenging for many yusho or even winning one, although the latter could happen if he gets lucky. Moreover, although he has a good sumo body and is strong, he lacks the technique of either Kakuryu or Kisenosato, his rivals this year to be promoted to ozeki. (Kisenosato has an excellent opportunity to secure the promotion in Noevember; Kakuryu, with the smallest body but greatest finesse of the three, had an opportunity at Aki but for the immediate future appears to be the odd man out.)
That being said, Kotoshogiku has been a sekiwake ten times, no mean achievement. He has the second highest power rating this year and his win totals this year or 11/10/11/12 are good, although hardly overwhelming. However, this basho he avoided careless losses and defeats to lesser rikishi. Whether seeing a sport’s psychologist (his breathing, both before and after the matches, was noticeably different, although to me his basic technique seemed about the same) or reading Ichiro Suzuki’s book helped him, he did what he had to do. He won’t embarrass the rank. (Although granted, given how the ozeki have performed as a group over the last 4 years, not much seems to embarrass them.)
At Sumo Talk Mike states that "Kotoshogiku is Ozeki material, but the Geeku's body of work the last three baho has been the lamest in the history of the sport for one promoted to this elite rank." The latter part of that sentence seems not only unfair but demonstrably erroneous. First of all, Kotoshogiku's win total is the same as both Kaio -- 8/14/11, and Dejima -- 9/11/13 -- prior to their promotions. Secondly, other rikish have been promoted to to ozeki after far weaker showings, including Kotokaze -- 9/10/12; Masuiyama -- 8/11/12; Kitabayama -- 8/9/11; and Wakahaguro -- 7/11/12 (yes, that's 7, a make koshi); their respective win totals are 31,31, 28 (!), and 30, all significantly lower than Kotoshogiku's 33.
So welcome to number two, Kotoshogiku. Thank your lucky stars and here's hoping you try harder.
3. Kisenosato. We've been anticipating a run at ozeki from Kisenosato since at least May 2008, where he strung together three good (including two top notch) tournaments in a row. So this run has been a long time coming. The "kid" is now 25, and, as the Rolling Stones once noted, "time waits for no man." He showed a newfound maturity at Aki. Throughout his career Kisenosato has lost a lot of matches where he has had the superior position through either hurrying or carelessness. He has good speed for a man this big, but he also has enough bulk and technique that he doesn't need to rely on his speed to win. A good example of this would be Natsu 2010, the tournament that Hakuba went 10-5 by henka-ing everyone left and right. When Kisenosato faced him on day 14 he didn't rush at the tachiai, leaving himself open to a henka. He simpled moved forward one step and waited (he sort of hopped, actually), knowning that once he met Hakuba even he'd have the strength to win, and win he did. That was smart sumo. We saw a lot of smart sumo from Kisenosato at Aki.
Kisenosato has won in double digits over four of the last 5 tournaments. If he gets 11 wins next time he'll have 33 victories over the last three tournaments, generally the "magic" number now. (It's "magic" in many senses, including the fact that the criteria are never exactly spelled out. However, there's no way the Sumo Association won't promote Kisenosato if he gets to 33 next time.) If Kisenosato can stay focused and deliberate he should be able to do it. Long a favourite of mine, he had the third best tournament at Aki, sharing both the jun yusho and the outstanding performance prize with Kotoshogiku. Two down, one to go.
4. Baruto. Power point ranking-wise Baruto had the fourth best tournament at Aki. It would be hard to call this a good tournament for him though, given the fact that he was lucky to win two of his bouts, against Toyonoshima and especially against Takekaze (Takekaze had an easy win but rushed it and lost his footing). In addition, his lost to Gagamaru was appalling. Baruto is almost as big as Gagamaru, stronger and much more skilled technically. To lose to him the first time they met should be a huge embarrassment. (It reminded me that as yokozuna, Asashoryu never lost to a rikishi the first time he met him. I knew Asashoryu, and you sir, are no ....)
So a fortunate 10-5 for a rikishi who can kachi-koshi pretty much by showing up for work, at least as long as he isn't injured. He's never won a yusho though, and with the type of performance he offered at Aki it's much harder now than it was a year ago to believe he's likely to win one any time soon.
5. Homasho. Homasho turned in the fifth best performance at Aki power rankings-wise, but don't let that fool you -- it was a brilliant tournament from Homasho. The power ranking points are secondary statistics, and as such are general guides, not surgically accurate. I generally think of them as being correct within 5%. Homasho's 95 is within that margin of error to Baruto's 99, and there's no question to me that subjectively Homasho had a much better basho.
First of all, Homasho defeated Baruto. In fact, Homasho defeated all three of the ozeki. In addition, Homasho faced the most difficult schedule of competition of any rikishi (Yoshikaze tied with him at 170), more difficult that Baruto. Baruto got two lucky wins, while Homasho only had one -- his "victory" over Aran, where Aran totally dominated him throughout the match and then threw him off the dohyo like a rag doll, only to lose because he unforcedly stepped out first. (Evidently you need to take an awfully big step when you are about to propel another rikishi into the second row.) Other than that bout, however, Homasho's tournament was a thing of beauty. He was really rooked in not being awarded a prize by the sumo association. His technique is much better and more varied than Kotoshogiku's is. (Homasho isn't better, but his technique is.) With a 10-5 record from M1 Homasho will be promoted to komusubi next basho, his first time in the senyaku. He's finally becoming the rikishi many of us hoped he'd be four years ago. I'm not betting he'll ever be an ozeki, but I expect more winning records in the jo'i (or the senyaku) in the course of his career.
6. Kakuryu. Normanlly when a sekiwaki finishes 9-6 he's had a good tournament. Not so, however, for Kakuryu. Ten wins would have given him 33 wins over the last three tournaments and, deserving or not, practically forced the Sumo Association to elevate him to ozeki, since that's the exact amount that it's boy Kotoshogiku got. However, a dismal first week (3-4), with losses to three lesser rikishi -- Wakanosato (yes, he who put the kabash on Kotogoshiku's promotion last tournament), Tochiozan, Okinoumi. When you get to the top in sumo a simple rule applies: you must defeat the less talented rikishi.
Kakuryu had an easier road to promotion than Kotoshogiku at Aki -- needing 10 wins to Kotoshogiku's 11. Of course, Kakuryu isn't Japanese and Kotoshogiku is, so Kakuryu wasn't going to get any favors. (See, i.e., Kotoshogiku's false start win on day two against Yoshikaze (not Kotoshogiku's fault, we have the gyojin to blame for that one) and his questionable win against a very generous Hakuho on day 13.) Now Kotoshogiku's overtaken him and next tournament Kisenosato may very well too. Unless Kotooshu falls out of the ozeki, a real posibility, that would mean five ozeki and no particular desire to add a sixth.
Beyond the practical problem, Kakuryu is lot like Harumafuji, so there already is a rikishi with a similar style among the ozeki. Kakuryu has a somewhat better sumo body than Harumafuji does, but trails his peer slightly at technique (although Karuryu's technique is quite good). It will be interesting to see if Kakuryu can regroup and make ozeki. I think he can, but it might be a long wait now.
7. Okinoumi. Part of the reason Aki was such an intersting tournament this year was that the sekiwake performed well as a group. The other reason was the impressive performance of the maegashira 1. Homasho had a brilliant tournament and his counterpart at MW was also solid, with Okinoumi turning in his second consecutive winning record among the jo'i. He's never been ranked among the senyaku and there's no space for him to be next tournament, unfortunately, but such a promotion won't be far off if he can continue to perform at his level.
Although he's the first rikishi on this list with a losing power ranking record, he did a fine job at Aki. After facing the best durng week one he needed to win each of the final four days to secure kashi kochi, and he did. Call him mini Toyonoshima (figuratively only).
8. Harumafuji. It's almost hard to remember that Harumafuji was fighting for promotion to yokozuna at the beginning of Aki. Although he finished at 8-7 and thus secured his kashi kochi, Aki was a deeply disappointing tournament for him, with four bad losses and one henka win.
On the plus side, ozeki is where Harumafuji belongs. He's a wonderful technition and has the heart of a lion, but he's not worthy of being a yokozuna. He simply doesn't have the weight or strength for it. Sumo is not a small man's game. Is there anyone afraid of facing Harumafuji? I rather doubt it. Is there anyone who thinks at the start of every basho: Harumafuji is surely either going to take the yusho or jun yusho? Again, that question has to be answered in the negative. There's nothing wrong with being a good ozeki. And in general, that's exactly what Harumafuji is. He wasn't at Aki though, so time to regroup.
9. Tochiozan. On the point system Tochiozan finishes ninth, but Aki wasn't a satisfying tournament for him. After going 6-1 the first week he finished out the tournament 1-7, thus failing to obtain his kachi koshi. Call him the anti-Toyonoshimi.
The second week of the schedule was the challenging one for Tochiozan, so many of the losses were to be expected. But losing to Takekaze, Okinoumi and Gagamaru (and Miyabiyama in week one) just isn't getting the job done. A bit like Goeido, Tochiozan is, as Winston Churchill famously stated about Russia, "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." Is he just having growing pains or is he only an elevator rikishi? Time will tell.
10. Toyonoshima. The little engine that could obtain kachi koshi after a 1-7 start. He pulled off the same trick in January, so it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise. After Aki he ranks at number 11 on the power rankings chart, so finishing in a tie for 10th is exactly what we should have expected.
10. Yoshikaze. A 6-9 record usually means a disappointing tournament, but that wasn't so in the case of Yoshikaze. Two big wins, over Baruto and Harumafuji, helped him to have a nice tournament. He's not that good overall, but represented the jo'i very nicely.
12. Gagamaru. Usually I wouldn't list the rikishi with the 12th best power ranking, but Gagamaru clearly deserves it. After looking sea-sick last tournament, lurching around and unable to maintain his footing, Gagamaru was unrecognizable in Aki, putting together the best performance of his career. Even after being bumped up to face the top rikishi Gagamaru didn't embarass himself, even pulling off a huge (I guess everything Gagamaru does is huge) victory over Baruto. If I were doing a subjective ranking I'd definitely put him ahead of the two guys at number 10, as his winning point total was almost the same while his percentage of wins was significantly higher. Next tournament will be a reality check.
