The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Hatsu 2011)

My previous blog dealt with the rikishi who had the best performances power ranking-wise at Hatsu. This blog looks at the rikishi who turned in good (forward moving) sumo, bad (henka) sumo, and ugly (non-forward moving sumo). The rikish who produced the best forward moving sumo totals at Kyushu are:

The Good

38  Baruto (14-1)

37  Gagamaru (12-3)

35  Hakuho (12-3)

34  Kakuryu (10-5)

33  Kotooshu (10-5)

32  Tochinoshin (10-5)

31  Myogiryu (9-6)
31  Tochiozhan (11-4)

30  Aminishiki (9-6)
30  Sadanofuji (8-7)
Obviously Hatsu was Baruto’s tournament. He had only one loss (no shame losing to Hakuho), one shameful moment (his henka of Kisenosato) and a couple of careless moments (Miyabiyama actually turned him around and Takekaze had him close to the edge too) he looked good.

Gagamaru displayed forward-moving power sumo throughout the tournament. He didn’t face any of the top wrestlers though, and it should come as no surprise that he can win when ranked in the double digits.

This was a great puzzlement of a basho from Hakuho. I personally found nothing amiss with his loss to Kakuryu although many other commentators did. It’s difficult to explain why Hakuho seemed to go for a shoulder blast against Harumafuji, thus helping to ensure the success of the henka. (Some commentators also emphasized how far back Hakuho was behind the line, but in general he stands at that range against Harumafuji.) And it’s even more difficult to explain how Kotooshu could defeat him and why he appeared so off form during the match.

Kakuryu had a good tournament, but he’s never going to make ozeki if he keeps losing to the likes of Wakakoryu and Tatayasu.

The Bad

There’s good news about the bad: the number of henkas dropped from the 40s (41 at Aki and 45 at Kyushu) to 33 at Hatsu. The biggest reasons for the drop were: 1. Kimurayama had been demoted to Juryo and 2. Tokitenku was low enough on the Banzuke that he didn’t feel the need to henka as often. Those rikishi who were guilty of multiple henkas at Hatsu were:

4  Yoshikaze

3  Kyokutenho
3  Sagatsukasa
3  Takanoyama

2  Aran
2  Asasekiryu
2  Kisenosato
2  Kitataiki
2  Nionoumi
2  Takekaze
2  Tokitneku

Especial dishonorable mention goes out to the three ozeki who utilized henkas: Baruto (against Kisenosato), Harumafuji (against Hakuho) and Kisenosato (against Kotoshogiku and Miyabiyama). The henkas were especially egregious because they all occurred at a stage where the offender was either in the yusho race (as with Baruto and Kisenosato) or his opponent was (as with Harumafuji).

Some people elsewhere have attempted to justify Baruto’s henka on the grounds that Kisenosato was taking a long time to get down to business at the tachi-ai. Perhaps he was, however that in no way justifies Baruto’s cheap tactic. Moreover, this was the third time in the last ten basho that Baruto has employed a henka against Kisenosato, the other occasions being Kyushu 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAoK0bGWoFk, and Natus 2010  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBwiu6y0DK8. Because he is an ozeki (and as the biggest rikishi) Baruto shouldn’t henka at all. For him to henka Kisenosato three times in there last ten bouts is simply undefensible.

As for Kisenosato, his henka of Kotoshogiku was likewise shoddy. While his tachi-ai against Miyabiyama was really more of a wide step left (very wide) – a sort of half henka if you will – to employ that type of “dishonesty” at the tachi-ai against a rikishi who is slow and well past his prime is lazy and inexcusable. When it’s done by an ozeki I rank it as a henka. This is the first tournament I can ever remember Kisenosato ever using a henka. Welcome to the ozeki club, I guess.

On that note, kudos to the two ozeki who didn’t henka anyone, Kotoshogiku and Kotooshu. The only time I can ever recall Kotoshogiku using a henka was at Hatsu 2008 when he came back from an injury (and not wrestling the previous three days) on day 12 and, still injured, used a henka. Kotoshogiku fights straight up.

As for Kotooshu, I’ve been critical of him for lack of heart and lack of effort. On the matter of henkas, however, however, he deserves credit, because he’s stopped using them. I believe he hasn’t employed a henka since 2009. In any case, they are no longer a constant part of his diet, as they once were. It’s a very positive development, one not followed as of yet among his peers.

The Ugly

The ugly wasn’t quite as dreadful as it was at Kyushu, which is rather amazing as a number of rikishi had a very bad tournament. The least forward moving of the bunch were:

  7  Kitataiki (2-13)

10  Yoshiazuma (3-12)

11  Takekaze (4-11)
11  Yoshikaze (9-6)

12  Kyokushuhu (3-12)
12  Miyabiyama (3-12)
12  Sagatsukasa (5-10)

These rikishi fall into three groups: 1. Way overranked (Kitataiki and Miyabiyama); 2. Juryo next basho, deservedly (Yoshiazuma, Kyokushuhu and Sagatsukasa); and 3. General crap artists (oh, surprise! Stablemates Takekaze and Yoshikaze).

I actually like Kitataiki: he’s a working class rank-and-filer who fights hard (one of the few who generally does on day 15, for example). However, he’s not nearly big enough, strong enough or quick enough (blown out knee) to fight in the jo’i. He looked bad throughout; one of his victories was by henka, the other came on the final day.

I don’t care for any of the other rikishi. Hatsu 2012 should be the last time that Miyabiyama is in the sanyaku. He was a bit unlucky not to win more than three bouts, but he certainly didn’t look good. I can’t see him ever making the sanyaku again, although I would have said that before Kyushu 2011 too.
To win 9 matches and end up with 11 forward moving points shows just how dreadful Yoshikaze’s form is. Don’t be fooled by the first number: he’ll be among the jo’i next tournament and he won’t fare well at all.

There were actually a lot of other rikishi who just looked awful at Hatsu, including Kaisei (again) and Toyonoshima. Hey, it happens.

Hatsu 2012 Highest Power Rankers

The time has come to add up the damage done at Hatsu. I formerly had called this list the “best”, but that isn’t accurate. This is the list of the rikishi who ended up with the most points at Hatsu, i.e., won against the strongest other wrestlers. This isn’t a list of the rikishi who performed best, for no one below number 7 or 8 performed particularly well. A list of who performed best would include Myogiryu (40 points) and Gagamaru (42 points). That list would be subjective, while this list isn’t. In addition, neither Myogiryu nor Gagamaru defeated any of the top rikishi. Gagamaru tied with Hakuho for the jun-yusho, but after going 5-3 in the first half of the tournament his diet in the second half consisted of the like of Kaisei, Takanoyama, and Fujiazuma, and no one is going to lose weight on a diet like that.

All of the top 12 rikishi (in honor of the new year and the fact that the eleventh spot was notched in a tie) were in the sanyaku or jo’i. To be the best you have to beat the best. Interestingly, the power ranking points at the top exactly mirror the won-lost marks, a rarity. Here ‘tis:

1. Baruto                  157-20          88.7%                        14-1               (2)

2. Hakuho                126-49          72.0%                        12-3               (1)

3. Harumafuji          118-61          65.9%                        11-4               (6t)

4. Kisenosato           114-67          62.9%                        11-4               (6t)

5. Kakuryu               106-67          61.2%                        10-5                (5)

6. Kotooshu                93-75          55.3%                        10-5               (9)

7. Aminishiki               83-96          46.3%                          9-6               (NR)

8. Kotoshogiku           81-87          48.2%                         8-7                (3)

9. Goeido                    67-120       35.8%                          6-9                (6t)

10. Takayasu              54-122       30.6%                          6-9                (NR)

11. Toyonoshima      49-135       26.6%                          5-10              (4)

11. Takekaze              49-142       25.6%                          4-11             (NR)

Pre-Hatsu 2012 Basho Report

Pre-Hatsu 2012 Basho Report

 For Hatsu this year I think it’s a helpful mneumonic  to pair off rikishi when making my predictions.

1.       The Basho Winner

Hakuho. The only real question is whether he’ll win a zen yusho (go undefeated). Unless he gets injured it’s hard to see anyone even pressing him for the title. In the year end report I showed how although Hakuho is still the best his power rating has gone down since 2009. There are two reasons for this. The first is that makuuchi division has been weakened by numerous forced retirements and expulsions over the last two years. A weaker talent level means the power ratings as a whole decrease. The second reason for Hakuho’s power ranking decrease is that he lost more bouts in 2011 than he did in 2009 and 2010 combined. In 2009 Hakuho set a record for most victories in a calendar year and then in 2010 he tied his own record. It’s simply not possible for anyone to produce at record setting levels year after year. Hakuho may not be quite as good as he was two years ago, but there has been no noticeable depreciation in his skills. No one else is close to him. Hakuho said he’d like to win yusho number 24 this year, which would mean winning 4 yusho. That seems to be quite a modest goal, and we’ll see how it plays out.

Although Kotoshogiku is the second highest rikishi in terms of power ranking, Baruto would still have to be accorded the closest rikishi to Hakuho in terms of being able to dominate opponents, when he is on his game. Baruto has said his goal for this year is to win a yusho. We’ll see if he has the mental strength and determination to do that. It’s a realistic goal, but it was in 2011 too and he never came close. In any case, it’s unlikely to happen at Hatsu.

2.       The New Ozeki

I like the chances of both Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku to finish with double digit wins, although I don’t see either of them challenging for the yusho. The pair went at it hard during a keiko session, a good sign of the fighting spirit of both ozeki. (Kisenosato had an edge in victories, but as he himself noted, he hasn’t done particularly well against Kotoshogiku in real matches recently.)

3.       The Sekiwake

In 2011 the sekiwake were uniformly good (and also had no make koshi). The former trend, at least continues in Hatsu. I expect both Kakuryu and Toyonoshima to go kachi koshi, although Kakuryu is the greater talent and the one I expect will finish with more wins. At Hatsu 2011 many people would have expected Kakuryu to be the next ozeki.  Obviously it didn’t turn out that way. On the other hand, in Hatsu 2009 many people would have expected Kisenosato to be the next ozeki . Sometimes things just take longer than expected. May it be so for Kakuryu.

4.       The Top Jo’i

It’s a weak jo’i this tournament, with Okinoumi and Goeido, at M2, providing the only real bright spots. Both are capable of going kachi-koshi, although the likelihood is that only one will. Recent history favors Okinoumi, while the power rankings show Goeido still higher. Maybe 2012 is the year Goeido starts to put it together, because when he’s good, he’s very good, shown by victories over all five current ozeki last year. I’d give him the slight edge to go kk.

5.       The Top Rookies of 2011

That would be, for my money at least, Tochinowaka and Myogiryu, who are ranked next to each other at M4W and M5E, respectively. I expect each of them to have a very good tournament and I’m very impressed with both of them overall. Although some people are touting Tochinowaka as the new big thing, I think the jury is still very much out on which rikishi will have a better career. Tochinowaka has a larger and more impressive body (and is two years younger), but I really like the technique and spirit I see from Myogiryu and right now slightly favor his chances. It will be interesting to see how they each climb the ranks over the next two or three years.

6.       The Under-Ranked Rikishi

The rikisihi I identified in my last column as the disappointments for 2011, Tochiozan and Tochinoshin (and also Aran) are all under-ranked and have all done well at the mid-maegashira level in the past. I expect good bouts from all three. Of the three, I feel that Tochiozan is the best.

7.       The rookies

There are four rookies in Hatsu: Chiyonokuni, Tenkaiho, Kyokushuho and Nionoumi. I believe that Kyokushuho is likely to do best at Hatsu. He has been pegged as one to watch for a number of years now, and while his climb to the makuuchi division has been slower than expected he is still young and talented. I also like Chiyonokuni and Tenkaiho and expect them both to have good careers, with Chiyonokuni likely to have the better career over time, but perhaps Tenkaiho rising faster during 2012. I see Niomoumi, who is undersized, as returning to juryo.

8.       Pairs Likely to Disappoint

I’m not sure if Kotooshu really disappoints anyone anymore. Other rikishi appear dispassionate, while Kotooshu actually looks bored. His fighting strength for 2011 is not worthy of an ozeki. The best thing for sumo would be for Kotooshu to be demoted and Kakuryu to take his place as an ozeki. It could well happen in 2012. Kotooshu hurt his arm during keiko but it doesn’t appear to be serious. If he’s not significantly hurt he should be able to pull out an uninspiring kachi koshi.

Harumafuji has certainly been hurt recently. Kintamayama at Sumo Forum reported recently that in early December Harumafuji had a large tumor in his buttocks surgically removed. It was discovered late and may well account for his lethargic performance at Kyushu. Harumafuji lost some weight and was behind (no pun intended) in his keiko. It’s hard for me to see how he should even be in Hatsu, and if he can win 8 or 9 bouts (and that’s a big “if”) it will be a major accomplishment in itself.

As much as the sekiwake are good, the komusubi are bad. It’s a sad thing to see the 34 year old Miyabiyama back in the sanyaku for the first time in four years. His power ranking number is terrible, and his technique rating at Kyushu was awful too: he had a rating of 19 (for 11 wins, which he had, his rating should have at least been in the high 20s), showing that he no longer is capable of consistently winning with forward moving sumo, even against rank-and-filers. Miyabiyama is too slow and his technique too shallow to win at this level. Every single member of the sanyaku is considerably better than Miyabiyama at this stage in his career, and if he beats any of them he should count himself lucky.

Wakakoyu is younger and better, but not by much. He’s going to lose a large majority of his matches as well.

The rest of the jo’i pairs up as well, the two M1s (Takekaze and Aminishiki) and the two M3s (Kitataiki and Takayasu). It’s Takayasu’s first time facing the top level of competition, and that seldom goes well. The other three aren’t talented enough to win at this level. Make koshi’s all around.

Finally, I’m also pairing up Sagatsukasa and Asasekiryu. If so many rikishi hadn’t been banned in March 2011 they would both be in juryo today. As it is they are likely to only have to wait another 15 days for that destination to become a reality.

Sumo 2011 Year End Report

Sumo 2011 Year End Report

Top Ten Sumo Power Ranking by Year

       2008                          2009                          2010                         2011

140 Hakuho             174 Hakuho             146 Hakuho             124 Hakuho

117 Asashoryu        133 Asashoryu        107 Baruto               105 Kotoshogiku

111 Harumafuji      119 Harumafuji        85 Kotooshu            98 Baruto

  92 Kisenosato        100 Kotooshu           85 Kaio                    95 Harumafuji

  83 Kaio                      90 Baruto                 83 Harumafuji       94 Kakuryu

  83 Kotomitsuki        81 Kaio                     77 Kisenosato        92 Kisenosato

  83 Kotooshu            80 Kotomitsuki       73 Kotoshogiku      72 Kotooshu

  82 Toyonoshima    78 Kakuryu               69 Aminishiki         68 Goeido

  77 Kotoshogiku      77 Kisenosato          68 Toyonoshima    65 Okonoumi

  76 Chiyotaikai         73 Goeido                63 Kakuryu             64 Toyonoshima

Rikishi of the Year

Hakuho, as he has been every year since 2007. It was actually a bit of an off year for Hakuho, who, although he won four basho, lost more bouts in the five basho this year than in the twelve basho of the previous two years. Still, for most yokozuna a year with an 88 winning percentage would be a career year. Only for someone as dominant as Hakuho could it be seen as an off year.

Most Improved Rikishi

This is jointly awarded to Okinoumi and Kotoshogiku. Okinoumi increased in strength by 46 points, although his total last year was out of sorts due to the demotion to juyro caused by his suspension for one basho for betting. (Oh right, that scandal.) Still an impressive year up for Okinoumi, and one mostly overlooked because of the two ozeki promotions.

Kotoshogiku is sort of the feel good story of the year in sumo. For most of his makuuchi career he has been the third best rikishi in his own stable. Prior to 2011 most sumo followers would have said that Kotoshogiku was a good rikishi, certainly a credit in the lower sanyuku ranks, but very unlikely to ever advance beyond Sekiwaki. There's no question that Kotoshogiku was in the right place at the right time – the Japanese rikishi on a ozeki run when sumo needed a Japanese ozeki. There’s some question as to whether Kotoshogiku received some “help” along the way, notably from Hakuho, who may well not have minded losing to Kotoshogiku during his ozeki run. Regardless, there is no gainsaying that Kotoshogiku is a much improved wrestler. His technique is powerful, although still limited. Nevertheless, he finishes the year with the second highest power ranking performance, a nice example of an athlete who may not be the most talented but perseveres, works hard, and improves.

Most Disappointing Year

Hands down this is another win for the Japan Sumo Association as a whole. This year has merely seen the largest sumo scandal in the history of the sport (coming one year after the previous largest scandal). Moreover, the results of the yaocho  investigation are what most people would have predicted: no truly high rikishi implicated (although it seems likely that Kaio has been involved in more thrown matches that anyone else over the last few years, regardless of whether money has exchanged hands) and of the makuuchi rakish banned, only one was Japanese while six were foreigners (one from South Korea, one from China and four from Mongolia, although one of those had taken Japanese citizenship). Oh yes, of course, everyone would have guessed that over 85 percent of the corruption of sumo at the top ranked was by foreigners! Incompetence compounded by scapegoating, thy name is Japan Sumo Association. (There were other scandals this year as well, but the list is too extensive to cover here.)

Most Disappointing Rikishi

Technically, Aminishiki, whose power ranking decreased 34 points, went down the furthest. Realistically, however, Aminishiki’s decrease is due to age and injury (his right leg seems more heavily bandaged every basho) and therefore he can’t fairly be termed the most disappointing.  I’m jointly awarding this to stablemates Tochinoshin and Tochiozan, whose power rankings decreased 21 and 17 points, respectively. They both have been extremely disappointing this year, unable to produce at the top level and highly inconsistent. They are each only 24 years old, so it’s possible they can turn things around in the next few years, but a lot of polish has come off their respective (not respected) reputations this year. (A dishonorable mention goes out to Aran, whose crappy henka-filled push-me-pull-you sumo is a puzzlement from one of the most physically powerful rikishi around.)

Rookie of the Year

It was a good year for newcomers. Myogiryu may well turn out to be the best of the lot in the long haul, but he’s only had one tournament at the top. Tochinowaka has been at the top longer and performed well throughout, even when facing the top rikishi, and deserves this award.

2011 Year End Sumo Power Rankings

2011 Year End Sumo Power Rankings

Another year is in the books, sumo-wise, and what a year it was: more scandals, the March tournament was cancelled (hence the x in the ratings), the May tournament was reclassified as a "technical examination", yet more scandals, one ozeki mercifully retired and two rikishi with questionable credentials were promoted to ozeki. Sumo fever -- catch it.

The one positive constant this year has been, once again, Hakuho. He's so dominant that I've invented a new word to describe him. Hakuho is the "transcender", the one who transcends. I've used somewhat more prosaic descriptions for the remainder of the rikishi. Without further ado, here is the power rating list for 2011.

Average                                1/11        x     5/11   7/11   9/11   11/11

            The Transcender

128  Hakuho                        150         x      121     108     118     145    

            The Contenders (Close to the Top)

105  Kotoshogiku               101        x        87     131     111      95    

98  Baruto                             83         x        90       96        99    120

95  Harumafuji                     65         x      109    142        73      85    

94  Kakuryu                           86         x      113    102        81      86                

92 Kisenosato                       84         x        81    108       101     85    

            The Pretenders (Not Quite There)

72  Kotooshu                      95           x        29**87         6**  70       

68  Goeido                          64           x      103    41       46       85

65  Okinoumi                     38           x        77     77       76       58      

64  Toyonoshima              63           x        33     75       58       89      

            The Defenders (Middle Class)

54  Homasho                      67          x       40       42       95       25

49  Tochiozan                     56          x       45       34       60       32** 

            The Upenders -- Occasionally (Blue Collar Workers or Shirkers)

42  Takekaze                      30         x      59       47       36       37      

41  Yoshikaze                     24         x      46       49       58       28                              

40  Tochinoshin                 20         x      71       47       49       11      

39  Tochinowaka             [12]        x      18       24       30       64      

39  Aran                              52         x       46       47      24      25

37  Kitataiki                       32          x       33       18      35      38      

36  Myogiryu                     --           x        --       [11]   [13]     36      

35  Aminishiki                   51          x       43       10      29      41      

35  Shohozan                    --            x        --         [7]   [11]     35      

35  Wakakoyu                   28          x       29        54     20      44      

32  Wakanosato               30          x       37        48      39        6**              

32  Aioyama                     [[4]]        x      [[5]]       [7]   [10]**32                                          

31  Kyokutenho               26          x        29         18     42      38      

30  Miyabiyama               19         x        21         32      28      51      

            The Rear Enders (The Lower Rung)

26  Gagamaru                     18         x        24       19      57      12      

26  Tamawashi                   50         x        30       19      20      12                  

25  Toyohibiki                     26         x        29       23      19      30                              

25  Takayasu                       [9]         x        [8]       24      24      28                                          

24  Daido                              [9]         x        [8]       17      25      30                                          

24  Fujiazuma                      [8]         x        [9]       26      20      27                                          

24  Shotenro                       26       x          17         24      30      **      

            The Descenders (Demotions Waiting to Happen)

24  Tokitenku                     22         x         24        30       22      20                  

23  Kaisei                             [8]        x         29        32       15      16  
                                        
22  Sadanofuji                    [6]         x         [5]       [9]        [8]    22                                            

20  Sagatsukasa                [[5]]       x       [13]       25       19      16 
                             
20  Asasekiryu                   25          x         23        20       17      15